It has elements of SWAG (scientific wild-ass guesses) based on existing precedents. It draws from an understanding of Martin’s other works and the prominent, pervasive themes throughout his career. It’s not the kind of hard “in-world” facts that most of us know and love. This is because a large portion of based on analysis of motifs, prose, patterns. The ‘evidence’ for these arguments is largely unconventional and will be disagreeable to many readers. Mance may have been fathered (directly or –more likely– otherwise) by Bloodraven. Depending upon your beliefs regarding the legitimacy of Jon and/or Aegon, this may render Mance to have a more legitimate claim. Mance Rayder is the son of Duncan “the Small” Targaryen and Jenny of Oldstones.
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